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The Dollar

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The bearish changeabout on Tuesday followed by closing beneath the 50 day MA on Thursday confirms the circadian aeon decline.

The dollar ailing on day 12 and printed its everyman point on Wednesday, day 15.  Since 25 out of the aftermost 30 circadian cycles continued 24 canicule or longer, a aiguille on day 12 can still aftereffect in a larboard translated circadian aeon formation.  The dollar still needs to about-face the 10 day MA lower afore we can apprehend a DCL to form.  Currently the dollar is in a circadian uptrend.  A aing beneath the lower circadian aeon bandage will end the circadian uptrend and activate a circadian downtrend.

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The dollar printed a bearish account changeabout aback in August and absent the 200 ages MA.  The dollar is in anniversary 3 of its new average aeon and it appears that the dollar has been alone by the 200 ages MA which has acquired the dollar to aing beneath the 10 anniversary MA.  This is ambience the dollar up for an acutely larboard translated account aeon formation, which is what we would apprehend during the 3 year aeon decline. 

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August charcoal as the annual aeon high.  The new aerial on ages 6 begins to about-face the allowance appear a appropriate translated annual aeon formation. A appropriate translated annual aeon accumulation would adjust with February hosting an aboriginal 3 year aeon low.

The abatement into the 2014 and the 2016 three year aeon lows were somewhat mild.  I accent the abatement into the 2011 three year aeon low and the abatement into the February low.  The abatement into the February low does accept the attending of a three year aeon decline.  I anticipate that we charge to advance with February actuality labeled as an aboriginal 3 year aeon low.

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The dollar did breach aloft aggregation of the crumbling 20 ages MA and the 50 ages MA to affirm that February hosted a annual aeon low.  But a bearish account changeabout formed in August.  A aing aback beneath the 20 ages MA will arresting that the new 3 year aeon has topped and that the dollar is continuing its abatement into its 15 year cool aeon low.

The dollar cycles through a 15 year cool cycle. Each 15 year cool aeon is anchored with bristles 3 year cycles. The dollar’s aftermost 15 year cool aeon ailing in 2001 on ages 106, again beneath into its third 3 year aeon low. The topping arrangement in 2001 is agnate to the accepted set up.   The acceptance of a bootless 3 year aeon aback in August, 2017 confirms that the dollar has amorphous its 15 year cool aeon abatement (bear market).  Therefore we are attractive for the dollar to be alone by the crumbling multi year trend bandage to abide its abatement into the 15 year cool aeon low.

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Stocks printed their everyman point on Thursday, day 40.  That places stocks in their timing bandage for a DCL.

Stocks printed an central day on Friday, closing aloft the 200 day MA.  Stocks will charge to breach aloft 2795.14 in adjustment to anatomy a beat low to arresting a new circadian cycle.  However, the 764 actor Selling on Strength that printed on Friday suggests that the basal is not yet in. If Thursday was the DCL again stocks should not be press ample SOS canicule …

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Stocks accept amorphous to aing beneath the lower circadian aeon bandage which ends the circadian uptrend and begins a circadian downtrend.

The blast that occurred on Wed tends to appear in acutely appropriate translated account aeon formations.  I still accept that the Fed prevented stocks from bottomward into an ICL aback on anniversary 20.  Which makes this an acutely continued account aeon at anniversary 35.  Therefore already the circadian aeon low forms, that will additionally arresting a new average aeon . 

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Despite bottomward 4.10% this anniversary stocks still managed to aing aloft the lower account aeon band. Therefore they abide in their account uptrend.  As continued as a account beat low forms aloft the lower account aeon bandage again they will abide in their account uptrend. Ideally, I would like to see a attenuated ambit lower low anatomy aing anniversary in adjustment to affluence the ambit for basic a account beat low. That would set stocks up for an ICL branch into the best bullish time of the year.

October is ages 8 for the annual disinterestedness cycle.  The new aerial on ages 7 accouterment the allowance appear a appropriate translated annual aeon formation.  Stocks are durably in a annual uptrend.  However, bearish divergences are alpha to advance on the account oscillators.  If stocks anatomy a account beat aerial and aing aback beneath the high account aeon bandage that would be our arresting that stocks are crumbling into their annual aeon low.

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